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How to look at the development trend of the future real estate market?

Time: 2019-04-24 Source:

A recent survey conducted by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development in conjunction with the Development Research Center of the State Council shows that in the first quarter China's real estate market remained generally stable, housing prices were basically stable, and market expectations tended to be rational. However, in some hot cities, residential sales are picking up and the land market is picking up, which needs to be paid close attention to.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from a month-on-month basis, of the 70 large and medium-sized cities in March, 65 cities had new house prices and 57 cities had second-hand house prices. The number of cities with house price increases has increased from the previous month.

The reporter combed according to public data and found that in the first quarter of this year, there were signs of accelerated capital inflows into real estate. The balance of real estate loans accounted for 29.2% of various loan increments; the land market in hot cities was heating up significantly.

According to incomplete statistics, in the first quarter of the 16 hot cities, a total of 48 parcels of land with high floor prices and high premium rates were sold, of which 20 were over or close to the surrounding second-hand housing prices. Some cities sold high-priced land and even new " Earth King. "

Recently, reporters visited some hot cities and found that the structural and regional contradictions of housing supply and demand are prominent, high-quality education resources are concentrated, supporting facilities are complete, or the development of urban agglomeration has a greater pressure on regional housing prices.

Market changes have aroused great concern from the society.

The Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee held a meeting on the 19th, demanding that the house should be used for housing, not for speculation, and implement the long-term regulation mechanism of one city, one policy, city policy, and urban government's main responsibility.

Industry insiders interviewed by the reporter believe that as long as they adhere to the "housing and not speculation" positioning, house prices do not have the conditions for soaring. However, in the context of strengthening the counter-cyclical adjustment of macro policies, we should pay close attention to the rising signs of the real estate market.

If the policy is stable, the expectation will be stable; if the policy is stable, the market will be stable. Wang Wei, director of the Institute of Market Economics of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that the real estate market will maintain fundamental stability due to factors such as population inflows, industrial clusters, and economic support. However, it is also necessary to be alert to the current short-term economic fluctuations and financial pressure. With the increase, the impulse of local governments to relax control and even stimulate the market may rise.

"Some cities with large fluctuations in house prices and land prices should be given early warning tips in a timely manner." Wang Wei suggested that the positioning requirement of "housing to live without speculation" should be adhered to as a fundamental guiding ideology for a long time, and should be used to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. process.

It is worth noting that on the 19th, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has issued early warning tips for cities with large fluctuations in house prices and land prices in the first quarter of 2019, requiring localities to resolutely implement the decision-making arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and always adhere to the The positioning for living, not for speculation, focuses on the regulation and control goals of stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and expectations, consolidating the main responsibility, maintaining the continuity and stability of policies, preventing large fluctuations, and ensuring the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

People in the industry believe that reiterating the continuity and stability of real estate policies strongly counters the speculation that national policies will swing back and forth due to short-term economic fluctuations.

On the steady implementation of the long-term mechanism of stable and healthy development of the real estate market, Wang Wei suggested that the pilot cities should firstly ensure a stable and orderly supply of land, which is the prerequisite and basis for stabilizing house prices. We must make up our minds to control land prices and guide and stabilize social expectations.

At the same time, we will improve the macro-prudential housing financial system, take strict measures to regulate housing finance, strictly review the sources of funds for housing purchases, strengthen the effective control of various types of funds entering the real estate market, and prevent and mitigate market risks.

Real estate market regulation is a game of chess. For local politicians, it is necessary not only to consider the immediate interests, but also to plan the long-term development of the city from an overall perspective. On the one hand, in order to better solve the problem of housing for the masses, we will reform and improve the housing market system and guarantee system, guarantee basic needs, and support reasonable self-occupation needs. On the other hand, we are always alert to the expected market instability, and investment speculation is making a comeback. Once a situation that disrupts the market, we must directly sharpen our sword, resolutely curb speculative real estate, and give ordinary people peace of mind.

Stabilizing house prices focuses on stabilizing expectations. Stabilizing house prices means stabilizing the hearts of the people. Local governments need to implement a one-city, one-city, and one-city policy long-term mechanism for real estate regulation based on population migration trends, market supply, and other conditions. They must shoulder the main responsibility and work with the central government to form a joint force on real estate regulation and ensure real estate The long-term health and stability of the market.


Editor:

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